Bird flu tests in the world economy "immunity"
With the coming of spring, bird flu spread worldwide, significantly faster. Since the December 2003 outbreak began in Asia this stock "H5N1 shock wave" in the New Year with lightning speed has swept Asia, Europe and Africa. Only recently, there is Kuwait, Italy, Germany, Egypt, more than 10 countries have reported H5N1 subtype of highly pathogenic bird flu, the United States and other countries have not yet found the outbreak are embattled. Has bird flu outbreaks in the world? Its economy and what impact will the financial markets?
Could push up inflation
Although bird flu has spread at the global trend, but with the original "SARS" outbreak, the opposite is the current world economic trends and regional financial markets, singing all the way, seems to have bird flu has been a complete "immunity" .
For this problem, Andy Xie, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley told the "Shanghai Securities News" reporters a telephone interview explained that financial markets and macroeconomic reason not to respond to avian flu, there are two main reasons: 1 is due to everyone is worried about bird flu cases spread among humans has not yet appeared, on the other hand, the market risk appetite improved, but also to ensure that the current global economic growth and financial markets the main reason for the bird flu indifferent. The ability to resist risks increase, mainly due to the low interest rate environment worldwide, and hedge funds active in the international market.
Experts pointed out that bird flu is only transmitted between birds, poultry and the risk of transmission between humans is not large, except with the illness occurred very close contact with poultry.
However, some scholars pointed out that large-scale outbreak of avian flu caused panic on the financial markets will be affected more or less.
"Bird flu primarily affects poultry food prices, with the attendant will bring agricultural prices, thereby affecting the level of global inflation. Coupled with the substantial increase in global raw material prices, global inflation will be higher," Shanghai Jiaotong University, Associate Professor of meditation Wei said.
Meditation Wei predicted the outbreak of bird flu may cause a general increase in interest rates this year, countries around the world from 1 to 1.5 percent, and its impact on financial markets may be reflected later in the year.
Potential threat to the rude "SARS"
Fortunately, the bird flu cases spread among humans yet been discovered, because once this happens, the economic blow would be fatal.
"Once the situation of human to human transmission occurs, countries will be forced to shut down the airport and port, which will directly affect the global economy for 20% of international trade," Xie said.
Xie admitted that if the worst happens ------ bird flu among humans began large-scale dissemination, the world economy will undoubtedly face a disaster. Initially in the "SARS" popular, relevant regional economic growth there have been down 1 percentage point a month, whereas if the bird flu transmitted between humans, their impact on the global economy will not be weaker than the "atypical pneumonia" .
Cyclical nature of the obvious
Special attention to the point that, because of its unique mode of transmission of avian flu with a remarkable periodicity. Every spring, the northern hemisphere, one after another as the birds fly back north, it is inevitable that the bird flu to enter the peak period.
In fact, FAO Deputy Director-General Hardy Charyk held last month in Beijing International Pledging Conference on Avian and Human Influenza, warned, trade, movement of people and animals and migratory birds, will make it possible bird flu virus spread to Africa and Europe in spring.
Dr. Mei Xinyu, China Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce said, "most of the areas affected should be located along migratory routes of the region, specifically, Europe may need to worry about, because migratory birds from Africa back." Mei Xinyu also pointed out that specific industry, should be subject to impact a large farming and tourism.
"Now the situation is, get through the year count for one year. If the (world economic) can survive this spring (high incidence of bird flu), it can wait until next spring, consider this question," Xie said.
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